In 1997, Katsuhiko Ishibashi, professor emeritus of seismology at Kobe University, coined a phrase as a warning about the possibility of a complex disaster triggered by an earthquake striking a nuclear power plant.
In 1997, Katsuhiko Ishibashi, professor emeritus of seismology at Kobe University, coined a phrase as a warning about the possibility of a complex disaster triggered by an earthquake striking a nuclear power plant.
The events that have unfolded at the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant provide evidence that Ishibashi's warning should have been heeded more closely.
The Asahi Shimbun interviewed Ishibashi about his warning and the role science should play in society.
Excerpts of the interview follow:
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Question: What are your thoughts to the fact that you in a sense forecasted what is happening now?
Answer: Although I am not an expert on nuclear reactors, I issued that warning about an earthquake striking at a nuclear power plant because I felt that engineers were not taking earthquakes seriously.
I pointed out factors that would likely not have been obvious to those who are not seismologists, but there has been an atmosphere that views as a taboo any thinking of a reverse nature.
Q: What do you mean by thinking of a reverse nature?
A: It is a way of thinking that leads to suggestions for changing society after illustrating the dangers that may be possible that would be obvious to someone who is a seismologist, rather than simply conducting research by using the current situation in society as a given condition.
For example, there is the thinking that seismology research is important because, with the concentration of political and business functions in the Tokyo metropolitan area, any earthquake striking that area would have major consequences. At the same time, there should also be the possibility of pointing out the dangers of concentrating everything in Tokyo because one understands from a seismology standpoint what devastating effects an earthquake on the Tokyo metropolitan area would have.
Q: Rather than providing fundamental suggestions, science is now being used to forecast the level of damage from earthquakes.
A: The Central Disaster Management Council uses science for damage forecasts. After deciding on areas of earthquake foci, such as the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai regions, estimates are made of the strength of the shaking, the height of tsunami and the number of fatalities. Based on those and other estimates, a forecast of the overall damage is made to think about measures to be taken to manage the disaster.
Once numbers are presented, society believes that a scientific basis has been established.
However, those numbers are undependable. Because no consideration is given to the possibility of accidents involving the Shinkansen or at the Hamaoka nuclear power plant, the number of fatalities will change quickly if such an accident actually does arise.
To begin with, the areas of earthquake foci that is the precondition for the forecast is an object for scientific research so there is the possibility those areas could be completely different.
Once such forecasts are included within the framework of government institutions, it is handled as though there was some degree of certainty.
Q: Are you saying science is being used in a wrong way?
A: The recent use of science reminds me of the bodyguard who protects the evil official in popular TV samurai dramas.
While the true samurai master is the one who does not have to unsheathe his sword, those bodyguards are quick to fling around their swords.
Science is often used like that bodyguard when doing things that border on the questionable because of the dangers involved within the workings of Earth that could produce disasters.
In order to be able to say there would be no problem even if a major earthquake struck a nuclear power plant, forecast calculations for the shaking are conducted using a wide range of factors.
However, what is forgotten is the fundamental fact that seismology does not understand everything there is to know about earthquakes and tsunami.
Q: How should society make use of science?
A: When one thinks about how to reduce damage from natural disasters, there are many things that can be done.
In order to construct a society that can prevent damage from earthquakes, there is a need for seismologists to speak the truth and clearly point out what the problem areas are.
For example, with an increase in skyscrapers being built in areas where the shaking of long-period ground motion is easily amplified, there is a greater possibility of becoming a quake victim.
Another example is, even if an attempt was made to bury highly radioactive waste, there are no areas in Japan where anyone can definitively say no effects would be felt from earthquakes.
Because society has to make choices about land usage and how it is structured after understanding the workings of nature, I believe the role of science is to provide the proper knowledge for that purpose.