The government’s planned 40-year limit on the operational life of nuclear power reactors will create a 36-percent black hole in Japan’s power generating capacity by 2030 if alternative sources of energy and ways of cutting demand are not found.
The government’s planned 40-year limit on the operational life of nuclear power reactors will create a 36-percent black hole in Japan’s power generating capacity by 2030 if alternative sources of energy and ways of cutting demand are not found.
Of Japan’s 54 reactors, 21 started operation at least 30 years ago and, if existing reactors past 40 years are decommissioned and no new reactors are built, only 18 reactors will remain at the end of 2030.
Together, they will have a capacity of only 21 gigawatts, or 16 percent of the nation’s annual power generation volume, even if they operate at a 90-percent utilization rate.
By 2050, all nuclear power reactors will be out of service unless exceptions are made to the legal amendment announced by nuclear accident minister Goshi Hosono on Jan. 6.
The government will therefore need to increase power generation using renewable energy, natural gas and coal, while curbing electricity consumption. An increase in thermal power generation will push up fuel costs and carbon dioxide emissions.
With a combined capacity of 49 gigawatts, the 54 reactors accounted for 26 percent of annual power generation volume in fiscal 2007.
The government’s basic energy plan had called for the construction of at least 14 more reactors by 2030, increasing the combined capacity to 68 gigawatts, about half of annual power generation.
But the accident at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, caused by the March 11 Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami, transformed those calculations. It will now be difficult to build new reactors in the face of opposition from local residents and a broader public alarmed by the accident.
The No. 1 reactor at the Mihama nuclear power plant and the No. 1 reactor at the Tsuruga nuclear power plant are both, like the No. 1 reactor at the Fukushima No. 1 plant, over 40 years old.
In exceptional circumstances, the government said it will allow some reactors to operate for more than 40 years after evaluating the deterioration of facilities and the capabilities of their operators.
But the standards for examination and the duration of extended operation have yet to be determined.
The planned legislation is designed to pave the way for reducing the nation’s dependence on nuclear power, with the government preparing a review of its basic energy plan by this summer.
Yoshihiko Noda outlined the policy direction at his first news conference after becoming the prime minister in September.
“The basic pattern is that we have to decommission existing reactors when they reach the end of their life while it is impossible to build new ones,” he said. “It is impossible to lower the dependence on nuclear power immediately to zero. I want to come up with a coherent solution covering a certain period.”
The government plans to alleviate expected electricity shortages by allowing currently suspended reactors to restart once their safety has been confirmed.
If the ratio of thermal power generation rises sharply, consumers could be forced to shoulder increased fuel costs through higher electricity charges.
Under planned revisions to the nuclear reactor regulation law, electric power companies will be required to take measures to deal with severe accidents exceeding those envisaged by the designers of reactors. Until now, such measures have been taken voluntarily.
In addition, electric power companies will be required to incorporate the latest knowledge on earthquakes and tsunami into the safety standards of existing reactors.
However, it is unclear whether these changes will reassure local communities near suspended reactors.
“We want to restart some reactors,” a Cabinet minister said. “But we do not expect 20 or 30 of the 54 reactors to go back online.”
An Upper House member of the ruling Democratic Party of Japan said the strong views of residents in areas devastated by the Great East Japan Earthquake would make it difficult to restart reactors in the near future.
This article was compiled from reports by Rintaro Sakurai, Takashi Sugimoto and Shinichi Sekine.