Japan has a rare opportunity to give up nuclear power, although shifting its power supply to renewable energy sources could take years, according to experts who spoke at the Global Conference for a Nuclear Power Free World in Yokohama on Jan. 14 and 15.
Japan has a rare opportunity to give up nuclear power, although shifting its power supply to renewable energy sources could take years, according to experts who spoke at the Global Conference for a Nuclear Power Free World in Yokohama on Jan. 14 and 15.
“Never in the world has there been an opportunity to phase out nuclear power so rapidly," said Aileen Mioko Smith, director of NPO Green Action, at a news conference on Jan. 11. "This is an opportunity that has fallen into our laps because of the disaster at Fukushima."
In the more than 10 months since the meltdown of reactors at the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, the anti-nuclear power movement in Japan seems to be gathering pace.
Seventy-seven percent of respondents in an opinion poll conducted by The Asahi Shimbun in December favored phasing out nuclear power, and with all 54 of Japan’s nuclear reactors due to be offline by May for routine inspections, some see it as a chance to quit atomic energy for good.
Those opposed to pulling the plug on nuclear energy cite a number of obstacles, among them: power shortages; higher costs for the government, companies and individuals alike; increased consumption of fossil fuels, leading to higher emissions of greenhouse gases; and unemployment for tens of thousands of people.
In the short-term, utilities will probably be able to cope through May, when moderate temperatures keep demand low, and even into July. But the stifling summer heat of August and September will almost certainly pose a huge challenge to a restricted power supply.
According to Smith, Kansai Electric Power Co. has the highest reliance on nuclear power out of Japan’s regional utility companies.
“Can Kansai Electric make it through the summer? It looks like it could, without nuclear power, but to answer that question we need more data,” she said, adding that the utility has yet to submit a full accounting of its capacity.
So far, the shortfall has been offset by energy conservation efforts by households and companies and increased consumption of non-renewable resources.
Tokyo Electric Power Co., operator of the crippled Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant, projected Nov. 4 that it would use a record 22.6 million tons of liquefied natural gas and 8.44 million kiloliters of oil in fiscal 2011, double the amount of the previous year.
Yet, according to several speakers at the Yokohama conference, swearing off nuclear power once and for all is possible.
Many pointed to Germany or Denmark as examples of countries that are shifting from nuclear power to renewable energy sources, while maintaining CO2 emissions targets, bolstering employment and even lowering consumer costs.
Mycle Schneider, a French consultant on energy and nuclear policy, says there are more appropriate solutions to shortages than unenforced, unregulated energy conservation and the burning of non-renewable energy.
“If you take out every other light bulb, that’s not energy policy,” Schneider said at the Jan. 11 news conference that prefaced the Yokohama event.
“What we need are the tools and policy instruments that really don’t make it attractive for a hotel [for example] to go without energy efficient lighting.”
To Schneider, however, this would be a temporary stopgap to a radical reorganization of Japan’s energy supply, based on renewable energy sources and micro-grids.
“Tomorrow’s energy landscape will be very different from today’s,” he said. “The logic will be horizontal, decentralized, intelligent networks where ... consumers will become producers.”
Germany’s vision for its energy policy offers a glimpse of what that might look like. Angela Merkel’s administration announced its withdrawal from nuclear power last June in response to overwhelming public concern following the Fukushima crisis.
She immediately decommissioned eight reactors that had already suspended operations and announced the phasing out of the country's remaining nine reactors by 2022.
The closure of the eight reactors amounted to a loss of 5,000 megawatts hour, but Germany's promotion of renewable energy sources means it is also moving away from fossil fuels to remain on course to meet its target of cutting CO2 emissions to 40 percent of 1990 levels by 2020, and by 80 to 95 percent by 2050.
The move is not without its critics. Many argue that solar and wind power are highly unreliable and could lead to both shortages and surges on the grid. For example, there might be high demand on a cloudy or windless day, while a bright and gusty day might overload the grid.
Mooted solutions to the supply and demand mismatch include storing electricity from peak supply hours in batteries, building decentralized smart grids that can balance demand with a mixture of energy sources to increase reliability, and building transmission “super highways” to link production sites to areas with high demand.
The German government is investing in all three strategies.
Under the current centralized system, surplus kilowatt hours course around the grid to account for fluctuations in demand, which causes massive wastage.
A “smart grid” boasts enhanced connectivity, automation and coordination because it runs on a digitized feedback system that allows it to respond to fluctuations in demand in real time.
The technology would also allow consumers and businesses to track their electricity use, while using “smart sockets” that respond to high demand or low supply by shutting off power to appliances that can withstand temporary power loss, such as refrigerators.
A smart grid would also allow consumers to store energy from central utilities, instead of allowing it to course back onto the grid, where energy is lost in the form of heat.
“Not only does this allow for stability and optimum use of renewables, it also enlarges the service level and options for consumers,” said Schneider in a presentation at the conference.
“Consumers can choose their grid and power source," he said. "They can decide whether they just consume their own energy or whether they sell to the grid.”
Some renewable are more reliable than solar or wind power: Geothermal and biomass plants, for example, can be turned on as needed.
Japan’s geography means that it might be better suited to these forms of energy generation, according to Masaru Kaneko, an economics professor at Keio University.
“We have a lot of mountains and rivers. Most of the land is also forested, which means biomass," he said. "That’s a stable and reliable supply of renewable energy, and I for one think that should be prioritized."
Some regional projects are already beginning to exploit the potential of their natural surroundings.
The Ohisama project in Iida, a city in Nagano Prefecture, installs solar panels for free on public and private buildings with funds from local investors. Households pay a set monthly fee commensurate with the size of their solar panels for nine years, after which they can use any energy garnered from the panels for free. At present, 220 businesses and houses are taking part in the project.
“In this part of Nagano we also have mountains and fast flowing rivers that we can use to generate power. We have a treasure trove of unused potential energy and we feel this will revitalize our region,” said Akihisa Hara, the director of the program.
For some, Ohisama’s average monthly fee of 18,000 yen ($234) per household, plus energy bills for when the sun doesn’t shine, might seem steep. Renewable energy has a reputation of being costly and requiring heavy subsidization to bring it down to the same price as other energy sources, such as nuclear or coal-fired generation.
Yet even solar power, currently the most expensive renewable to produce, will be as cheap as “conventional” sources such as oil, gas, nuclear and coal within five years in countries that promote it, according to Eric Martinot, the chair of the World Council for Renewable Energy.
Martinot noted that more than $250 billion was invested into renewable energy in 2010, with China’s contribution exceeding total global investment in 2004. Japan, which only approved a law last September to start feed-in tariffs in July, joining 61 other countries, is no longer at the cutting edge of the field.
“It was a world leader, 15 years ago,” Martinot said. “But even Brazil invested more last year. Japan needs to regain prominence.”
Barriers to the adoption of renewable energy encompass culture, policy, financing, lack of knowledge and entrenched interests.
For example, many inhabitants of Rokkasho, Aomori Prefecture, support the nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in their village because it props up the local economy, according to Keiko Kikukawa, a resident who has long protested the plant’s existence.
“We try to educate people about the risks but they resist for economic reasons,” she explained at the Yokohama conference.
Others criticize the cozy cronyism of Japan’s “nuclear village” of industry officials, politicians and academics for what they see as a dogged and illogical attachment to nuclear power at the expense of furthering renewable technology.
“In Japan, the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency is part of the trade ministry. There are no check procedures in place: They are in cahoots. That means the industry can protect itself,” said Eisaku Sato, a former governor of Fukushima Prefecture, at the conference. “When the basis of the economy is nuclear power it might flourish for a short time, but it’s not a solid foundation over the long term.”
Although the nuclear industry portrays nuclear energy as a cheap form of power, costing consumers just 5-6 yen per kilowatt-hour, factoring in government subsidies and payments to communities living near plants puts the real cost at 10.68 yen, according to figures produced by Kenichi Oshima, a professor of environmental economics and policy at Ritsumeikan University. This is higher than the cost of thermal power or hydro power, which Oshima calculated at 9.9 yen and 7.26 yen, respectively.
Kaneko, the Keio University economist, presented these figures at the conference and argued that there is no economic rationale to continue using nuclear power instead of renewables. He noted that factoring in distribution, wages and storage of radioactive waste puts the cost closer to 20 yen per kWh, and says switching to renewables would stimulate the economy and job market.
In Germany, 370,000 people work in the renewable energy field.
“A new green deal would increase innovation and the number of jobs,” he said. “Nuclear power is only good for a few businesses, whereas renewables benefit everyone.”
Despite addressing the main criticisms of renewable energy?its reliability, intermittency, cost and economic impact--there was one issue that few speakers at the conference discussed: time. Even if Japan were to never fire up a nuclear power station again after May, the time it would take to build decentralized smart grids and sufficient renewable capacity in the form of hydro, solar, wind and biomass plants might mean that power shortages and increased consumption of fossil fuels are unavoidable.
“We didn’t pull the plug,” said nuclear waste disposal expert Michael Sailer of his native Germany. “It’s a stepped approach on both sides. We have to phase out the plants. On the other hand, we have clear plans by the government to support the development of renewables.”
To others, the risk of another nuclear accident is too great.
“Some say suddenly stopping nuclear power will be problematic and we should gradually phase it out. That’s too dangerous,” said Hiroyuki Kanai, a lawyer who is representing a liaison group to stop nuclear power, and wants TEPCO executives to be sued for the Fukushima accident. “We cannot wait. We have to stop all the reactors immediately.”