Despite safeguards put in by Japan Railways, more than 100 passengers are expected to be killed in derailments of Shinkansen bullet trains if a major earthquake strikes Tokyo, Osaka or Aichi prefectures, according to the Central Disaster Management Council.
Despite safeguards put in by Japan Railways, more than 100 passengers are expected to be killed in derailments of Shinkansen bullet trains if a major earthquake strikes Tokyo, Osaka or Aichi prefectures, according to the Central Disaster Management Council.
The Hyogo prefectural government, meanwhile, estimates that the death toll would top 1,000 in a quake-caused accident if victims on conventional railways and subways are included.
Japan Railway companies said they do not anticipate a fatal Shinkansen accident in an earthquake, citing progress in countermeasures, such as a system to detect seismic waves early and decelerate trains before a strong shaking.
According to estimates by the Central Disaster Management Council, 200 passengers would be killed in a magnitude-6.9 earthquake centered in the western part of central Tokyo or in a magnitude 7.6-earthquake in the Uemachi fault zone in Osaka Prefecture.
The central government council also said 100 passengers would be killed in a magnitude 7.6-earthquake in a fault zone in Aichi Prefecture.
The estimates were produced between 2005 and 2008 after a train was derailed on the Joetsu Shinkansen Line in the 2004 Niigata Chuetsu Earthquake. No one was killed or injured.
In the Great East Japan Earthquake last year, all 19 trains that were in commercial runs on the Tohoku Shinkansen Line were safely brought to a stop.
As for the Uemachi fault zone, the Osaka prefectural government separately estimates that 456 bullet train passengers would be killed in a magnitude-7.1 earthquake based on different assumptions from those used by the Central Disaster Management Council.
The Tokyo metropolitan government estimates that 386 passengers would lose their lives in a magnitude-7.3 earthquake centered on the northern part of Tokyo Bay if victims on conventional railways and subways are included.
The Hyogo prefectural government’s estimate shows that the death toll would reach 1,285 passengers on Shinkansen, conventional railways and subways in the event of a magnitude-7.7 earthquake in two fault zones in the prefecture.
The local governments’ estimates were compiled between 2006 and 2008.
East Japan Railway Co., West Japan Railway Co. and Central Japan Railway Co., which operate Shinkansen lines in these regions, said they do not anticipate a fatal accident in a major earthquake.
In addition to introducing early detection systems, the companies have reinforced elevated tracks and rails and also ensured that trains would not travel from tracks substantially even after derailments, officials said.
In the 1995 Great Hanshin Earthquake, pillars for elevated tracks for the Sanyo Shinkansen Line were broken. No similar damage was caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake.
Seiji Abe, a professor at Kansai University’s Faculty of Safety Science and expert on transportation systems, said there is little possibility that a major accident will occur on the bullet train lines.
Abe said, however, that it is important for Japan Railway companies to produce the worst-case scenarios as part of efforts to demonstrate their commitment to safety.
The focal region of the Great East Japan Earthquake was in the sea area, away from the Tohoku Shinkansen Line. When the Great Hanshin Earthquake struck, operations had not started on the Shinkansen lines.