If all nuclear power plants remain suspended, regions served by three utilities will experience summer electricity shortages even five years ahead, according to estimates by The Asahi Shimbun.
If all nuclear power plants remain suspended, regions served by three utilities will experience summer electricity shortages even five years ahead, according to estimates by The Asahi Shimbun.
That's because Kansai Electric Power Co., Kyushu Electric Power Co. and Shikoku Electric Power Co. all depend heavily on nuclear power but do not have many old thermal power stations that can be restarted.
Industrial and individual electricity users in the regions served by the three utilities would have to save power at least for four summers from next year.
And concerns about electricity shortages would force companies to relocate production overseas or hinder domestic investments in plant and equipment.
The Asahi Shimbun calculated the maximum electricity supply capacities of nine regional electric power companies based on their generation facilities and compared them with peak demand forecasts in August.
The supply capacity will fall short of demand next summer at Tokyo Electric Power Co., Chugoku Electric Power Co., Kansai Electric, Kyushu Electric and Shikoku Electric.
The capacity shortfall is expected in summer even three to five years ahead at Kansai Electric, Kyushu Electric and Shikoku Electric.
The estimates are based on the assumption that the government does not implement power-saving policies, such as those being taken this summer.
Electric power companies plan to make up for electricity shortages by restoring suspended thermal power plants or speeding up construction of new ones.
The Institute of Energy Economics, Japan, estimates that electric power companies will have to spend an additional 3.5 trillion yen ($44.75 billion) on fuel for thermal power stations if all nuclear power plants are suspended.
The costs would be eventually borne by electricity users.
TEPCO plans to bring forward construction of a liquefied natural gas power station and a coal power station, but the facilities will not be ready by next summer.
Chubu Electric Power Co. will restart a thermal power station in Taketoyo, Aichi Prefecture, which was suspended two years ago because of its age, by the end of July.
The company also plans to advance construction of two large thermal power stations.
From next summer, Tohoku Electric Power Co. will gradually restart five thermal power stations that were suspended due to the March 11 Great East Japan Earthquake.
The company is also considering installing several gas turbines, each with a capacity of about 300 megawatts.
Companies are concerned about hikes in electricity charges.
Toshiba Corp., which is competing fiercely with South Korea's Samsung Electronics Co. in the global flash memory market, completed a new building at its main plant in Yokkaichi, Mie Prefecture, in July.
"Even now, our rival's electricity rate is about 40 percent of Japan's," said Toshiba President Norio Sasaki. "If the cost of (electricity) increases further, production levels in Japan will fall."
Some companies are already relocating production overseas.
Optical equipment maker Hoya Corp. set up a subsidiary in Singapore in June to produce semiconductor materials for which it controls 80 percent of the global market.
The company has produced the materials at its plant in Yamanashi Prefecture, where production fell due to rolling blackouts after the March 11 disaster. The Singapore plant will start operations in July 2012.
"We concluded that we will not be able to disperse risks if we manufacture only in Japan, where electricity shortages will continue," said a Hoya official.
Mitsui Mining and Smelting Co. will install an auxiliary assembly line in Malaysia by April for special copper foils for chips used in smartphones.
While an around-the-clock operation is required, production lines at its plant in Saitama Prefecture were suspended for nearly a month due to the rolling blackouts.
Toshiyuki Shiga, chairman of the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association, said, "To defend our company and our industry, we have to prepare ourselves for a scenario in which all nuclear power reactors are suspended."
According to an industry ministry survey in May, 69 percent of 163 large manufacturers and other companies said the shift of operations overseas could accelerate due to the Great East Japan Earthquake.
If all nuclear power reactors are suspended and thermal power generation is increased, Japan may not be able to meet its requirement to cut carbon dioxide emissions between fiscal 2008 and fiscal 2012 by 6 percent from fiscal 1990 levels.
At the Lower House special committee on reconstruction on July 12, Environment Minister Satsuki Eda said greenhouse gas emissions in fiscal 2012 will increase by 15 to 16 percent from fiscal 1990 levels.
If all nuclear power plants are suspended, carbon dioxide emissions in fiscal 2020 will rise 19 percent from fiscal 1990 levels, jeopardizing the government's goal of a 25-percent reduction.