The ever-present threat of tsunami, brought home by the 2011 disaster, has triggered a boom in sales of life jackets amid new warnings of what to expect when the next Big One strikes.
The ever-present threat of tsunami, brought home by the 2011 disaster, has triggered a boom in sales of life jackets amid new warnings of what to expect when the next Big One strikes.
Experts say a vast stretch of densely populated central Japan will likely be hit by a magnitude-9.0 earthquake that will generate towering tsunami and kill up to 323,000 people.
The tsunami generated by a major earthquake near the Nankai Trough, a subterranean trench extending approximately 700 kilometers along the Pacific coastline, would hit within minutes, say experts.
It is into this mix that companies are coming up with all sorts of flotation devices amid public hunger for tsunami survival equipment following the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster that claimed nearly 20,000 lives.
While use of the new equipment has central government backing, experts caution that people should not place too much faith in such devices, but rather pay close attention to evacuation procedures.
"Looking at the current estimates, I have no doubt that I would be swept away," said Mikiho Oishi, the 57-year-old president of a construction company in Yaizu, Shizuoka Prefecture. "In that case, it's better to have something that would lessen the danger, at least a little."
Oishi bought six life vests for his family.
The government estimates released during the 12 months from March 2012 said the tsunami generated by a Nankai Trough earthquake would reach up to 11 meters and hit Yaizu in minutes.
Given that his family lives just a few hundred meters from the coast at an elevation of around 3 meters, and far from high ground, Oishi is certain that tsunami would engulf his home.
"There's nothing else we could do," he said, referring to the survival gear he purchased.
The selling point of products offered by Kazawa Trading Co. in Kobe are a hood to protect the head from tsunami flotsam and a design that makes the device float face-up even if the wearer loses consciousness.
"Before the Great East Japan Earthquake we were selling between 1,000 and 2,000 units a year," said the company's president, Yoshihisa Kazawa, 63. "After the damage estimates were released, sales started to soar. This year, we've been selling as many as 6,000 vests a month."
He said the products are selling across a broad area that encompasses Shizuoka, Kochi and Wakayama prefectures, which are all expected to incur heavy tsunami damage.
Local governments, meanwhile, are stocking up on life vests and offering subsidies to encourage residents to buy their own.
In Tobishima, a village of around 4,700 souls on a strip of land in Aichi Prefecture that sits roughly at sea level, the local government has distributed around 650 vests to daycare centers and elementary and junior high schools since April of last year.
In August 2012, the city of Hamamatsu stocked up on more than 3,000 life vests, enough for each of its volunteer firefighters.
After the 2011 earthquake and tsunami disaster, the town of Kushimoto in Wakayama Prefecture introduced a subsidy of up to 3,000 yen to cover half the cost of a life vest. In less than two years the town already processed about 400 applications for the subsidy.
"The vest won't necessarily save your life, but if you store it nearby then it will remind you to be ready for disasters," said a town official.
After the 2011 disaster, Mont-bell Co., a major outdoor goods company based in Osaka, created the Ukusshon life vest for just such an event.
When folded up, the vest looks like a cushion.
The company's philosophy was simple: "If a life vest is bulky, then people won't place it nearby."
Kenichi Yamamoto, a professor of automotive engineering at Ishinomaki Senshu University in Ishinomaki, Miyagi Prefecture, developed an automobile seat cover that doubles as a life vest this past May. The project was collaborative effort involving 11 local companies. The cover is made of buoyant material.
It can easily be removed from the car seat. The wearer need only fasten it with a belt.
Yamamoto came up with the idea after his car was swept away by the 2011 tsunami.
"A tsunami from a giant Nankai Trough earthquake would reach some areas in a few minutes. People need to be ready in case they get caught in it," he said.
Yamamoto intends to start selling the seat cover life vests at the end of this year.
In March, urethane maker Hamaguchi Urethane Co. in Hamamatsu finished building what it calls the Urethane Float wheelchair flotation device. It was designed to withstand getting struck by tsunami flotsam.
Hamaguchi Urethane decided to develop the device after staff at a nursing home the company was selling life vests to pointed out that they wouldn't help people in wheelchairs.
A company employee said the device "has a buoyancy of 90 kilograms to carry the weight of a wheelchair and a person," adding that after learning how to use it, the device can be ready to use in about a minute.
The Shikoku Transport Bureau of the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism has created its own prototype tsunami lifeboat.
The bureau formulated guidelines in June prescribing safety standards and handling instructions. A bureau official said, "We hope these guidelines will help companies develop suitable products and give buyers peace of mind."
So, just how effective are life vests and other flotation devices in a tsunami?
Fumihiko Imamura, a Tohoku University professor of tsunami engineering who is a central member of the Joint Research Team on the Great East Japan Earthquake Tsunami Evacuation formed by a group of experts, regards the equipment as "one option to raise the likelihood of survival."
On the other hand, he stressed that people "should not forget that they should think of these as no more than a last resort." He noted that being struck by tsunami debris often results in fatal injury.
While people may draw comfort from having a flotation device, they may actually put themselves in greater danger by thinking they will be safe and neglecting to evacuate to higher ground, leaving too late or having trouble putting on the life vest or other equipment.
Experts also say that a flotation device may not necessarily perform as advertised in a tsunami.
"The basic rule, 'find high ground first,' still applies, even if you have a flotation device," said Imamura. "But I think it's good to stock life vests and the like at nearby evacuation facilities and to put one on if you're far from high ground and don't have the time to escape."