If a magnitude-7 earthquake were to strike the nation's capital, the total figures for fatalities and economic damage would be overwhelming, according to a central government panel forecast released Dec. 19. But what might the actual situation be like for ordinary residents of the greater Tokyo metropolitan area?
If a magnitude-7 earthquake were to strike the nation's capital, the total figures for fatalities and economic damage would be overwhelming, according to a central government panel forecast released Dec. 19. But what might the actual situation be like for ordinary residents of the greater Tokyo metropolitan area?
One scenario, based on the panel’s estimates, shows what Tokyoites could face in the immediate aftermath of a major quake as well as the longer term effects.
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It’s the evening rush hour on Dec. 20 sometime in the future: It could be next year or 2020, after Tokyo has hosted the Summer Olympics.
Streets are filling up with workers going home or shoppers gazing at the bright Christmas decorations.
Suddenly, a chorus of warning buzzers sounds as everyone’s mobile phone signals that a major quake is imminent.
A small tremor is followed by violent horizontal shaking. Screams can be heard as window panes and wall tiles fall off buildings, and signs crash on the streets.
Panic occurs in underground malls and passageways.
A few minutes later, the shaking finally comes to an end, but Tokyo is covered in darkness.
A magnitude-7.3 quake has hit with a focus in the southern part of the capital. Over 30 percent of the area of Tokyo as well as the prefectures of Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama records seismic intensities of 6 or greater on the Japanese scale.
A total of 175,000 older buildings or wooden homes are destroyed. Those structures are located in a circle surrounding the central part of Tokyo, and the hardest hit areas include the Tokyo wards of Ota, Setagaya, Nerima and Edogawa.
As many as 2,000 fires break out simultaneously all over Tokyo due to damage caused to gas and heating equipment.
Efforts to contact family and friends using mobile phones prove fruitless because limitations have been placed on 90 percent of potential calls.
People try to check online sites for news with their smartphones, but the flood of users makes Internet connection difficult.
Television networks that managed to escape major damage begin broadcasting special programs about the disaster, but trying to view those programs on mobile phones quickly uses up battery life. Battery-powered radios, instead, become a major source of information.
A total of 58,000 people are trapped in collapsed structures. In major business areas, a total of 11,000 people find themselves trapped in elevators.
While the sounds of sirens from fire trucks and ambulances can be heard, they never seem to appear as roads are blocked by collapsed buildings and abandoned vehicles.
Fires at 600 sites spread because fire fighters are unable to put them out. With winds blowing at speeds of close to 30 kph, the fires spread mainly along areas consisting of wooden structures. As many as 410,000 buildings are gutted as the fires rage over two days. Many empty structures are destroyed in fires that start from damaged electrical equipment after power is restored.
Disaster victims trying to flee the flames lose their way or are not reached by rescue units. That leads to as many as 23,000 fatalities and another 123,000 people injured.
Those who survive the immediate effects of the quake try to make their way home or to evacuation centers.
However, all train lines have stopped operating. In the worst-case scenario, 8 million people in the Tokyo metropolitan area will be unable to return home on the day of the quake. Aftershocks cause panic attacks among the hordes of people who have flooded the major train stations.
Transportation networks are not the only social lifeline affected.
The thermal power plants located along the shore of Tokyo Bay stop operations when a quake hits with an intensity of lower 6. Tokyo Electric Power Co. cannot transmit power to about half of its residential and commercial customers over the course of a week after the quake.
About half of the mobile phone base stations and fixed phones in Tokyo and its three surrounding prefectures become inoperable.
Two of the four runways at Haneda Airport also cannot be used.
With the water supply cut off, as many as half of the homes and businesses in the greater Tokyo metropolitan area are left without any water. As much as 10 percent of the households in that area are without access to the sewage system for up to a week. Conditions soon become unsanitary as toilets cannot be used.
Within hours of the quake, shelves at convenience stores are bare. Even areas outside of the disaster-stricken region experience shortages of products as consumers begin hoarding food, drinking water and batteries.
The supply of materials from outside the disaster-stricken area comes to a halt due to damaged roads, traffic jams and restrictions that give priority to emergency vehicles.
Water and food shortages become serious.
The prime minister declares a state of disaster emergency and a Cabinet order is issued to control prices and place restrictions on the sale of daily necessities.
While 3 million people evacuate a day after the quake, the figure explodes to 7.2 million within the next two weeks. Most of the new evacuees are those forced to leave their homes due to a lack of electricity and water after having gone through all their reserve supplies.
Some municipal governments quickly run out of their stored reserves of food and water. As the number of evacuees increases, there is a shortage in one week's time of 34 million meals and 17 million liters of water, which represents one day's supply for 5 million people.
Those shortages lead to deteriorating health among some people.
Even after a month passes, the situation is far from being back to normal. About 90 percent of homes and companies have had their electricity, water supply and gas restored. Except for some major roads, vehicular traffic is possible. Even in areas that recorded seismic intensities of at least 6, about 60 percent of railway and subway lines have resumed operations.
Shinkansen operations resume one week after the quake for those portions that had suspended operations in the immediate aftermath of the quake.
At the same time, 4 million people still cannot return home. Of that number, 1.2 million live in evacuation centers. The cramped conditions lead to deteriorating physical and mental health for many people. Some people die from the effects of economy class syndrome or after a worsening of influenza symptoms.
Psychological stress leads to an increase in suicides.
The shortage of supplies in central Tokyo reaches a peak a week after the quake, but the distribution network is almost back to normal in a month's time.
However, a shortage of fuel and petroleum products continues because of delays in the resumption of operations due to damage at petroleum tanks and industrial complexes along coastal areas.
Some local governments experience delays in administrative work because of damage to government buildings. However, there is talk about rebuilding as some governments begin assessing damage figures. Rubble from the quake is estimated to amount to 85 million cubic meters.
Finally, work can begin on temporary housing facilities.
(This article was written by Tomoya Ishikawa and Senior Staff Writer Tairiku Kurosawa.)