Risk probability of major nuclear accident to be cut by half

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The industry ministry intends to cut the risk probability of a major nuclear accident occurring to once in 80 years, half that of the once-in-40-years rate contrived just after the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

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Risk probability of major nuclear accident to be cut by half
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The industry ministry intends to cut the risk probability of a major nuclear accident occurring to once in 80 years, half that of the once-in-40-years rate contrived just after the Fukushima disaster in 2011.

The industry ministry is a big supporter of nuclear power because it offers a cheap energy option.

The risk rate of a nuclear disaster is being revised because nuclear power plants are now only allowed to operate under safety standards set by the Nuclear Regulation Authority that are much stricter than at the time of the Great East Japan Earthquake and tsunami four years ago.

A plan assessing electricity generation costs was made under the administration led by the Democratic Party of Japan in 2011 following the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant crisis, in which the probability of a large-scale nuclear power accident was presumed to be once in 40 years.

The cost of dealing with the basic damage plus the radioactive contamination of the environment was taken into account in determining the generation costs.

If the probability is revised to once in 80 years, the proposed costs for dealing with nuclear disasters will be reduced. But the ministry still plans to increase the safety fees to meet the NRA's new regulations. This means the cost of generating nuclear power will likely exceed the price set in the 2011 plan as "more than 8.9 yen" per kilowatt-hour.

All nuclear power plants in Japan suspended operations as the Fukushima No. 1 nuclear power plant crisis unfolded following the earthquake and tsunami. In recent months, however, several nuclear power plants are making preparations to resume operations, having passed safety screenings conducted by the NRA based on the stricter standards.

With the application of such standards, the average probability of a core meltdown and other major accidents in such facilities as the Sendai nuclear power plant in Satsuma-Sendai, Kagoshima Prefecture, which will be resuming operations in July at the earliest, will be cut to half of what was presumed before the new safety measures were implemented.

The ministry plans to utilize such power plants as examples to justify revising the probability of nuclear accidents.

(This article was written by Daiki Koga and Tomoyoshi Otsu.)

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